Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands leadership election, 2009

The Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands leadership election of 2009 will take place on Friday, October 2. The party's 137 parliamentary representatives and, potentially, 62,000 rank-and-file members, will choose one candidate to serve as the party's official federal parliamentary leader. The candidate elected will become Leader of the Opposition in the Georgeland Parliament.

Background
Robin Sales was chosen as the party's leader unanimously following the 2007 election loss and resignation of Zoe Parker. Sales' election was controversial because he was not, at the time, a member of the House of Commons. Since his election, Sales has been plagued by poor polling and a series of tests to his leadership, most notably over the global financial crisis and climate change, issues on which Sales is widely seen as weak and incoherent. Furthermore, Sales' handling, while Chief Minister of East Mainland, of the failed privatisation of the state's power infrastructure has of late begun to affect his community standing, especially since the successful selling off of a 49% stake in the power supply by the conservative state government. Sales' standing in the polls has been consistently low since the election, though he has risen from a low point of just 19% to 63% against incumbent Prime Minister Luke Macaulay in the Preferred Prime Minister poll. The vote share of the LDP also stands to dramatically reduce if the election result matched polling - Sales' polling data records a 7% swing to the Conservatives from the 2007 result. Furthermore, a poll in June 2009 revealed that between 20 and 30 per cent of likely Conservative voters in 2010 would be more inclined to vote Liberal Democrat if Sales were not leader. Speculation on leadership challenges had been rife for several months. Some of this tension was eased when Andrea Perkins, Sales' rival for the leadership, quit the party. However, this has not entirely eased the pressure and only hurt Sales' polling numbers. On September 30, Sales announced he was calling a leadership spill and that he would be a candidate. He declared his expectation that, should he win, all leadership speculation and tensions within the media and the party cease so he would be in a strong position to contest the next election.

Timetable and rules
The election will follow the standard rules laid out in the party's constitution for electing leadership candidates. All candidates must nominate for a party room ballot, in which the 107 Members of the House of Commons and 30 Senators will vote for their choice of candidate by casting a ballot for one member only. If, after this process, there is a single winner with a majority of votes (which would occur if there are only two candidates), that candidate is declared elected. If not, the second stage pits the remaining candidates in an election in which all rank-and-file party members are eligible to cast a vote. The ballots in this election will use an instant runoff voting system. Since 2004, there have been four leadership elections for the party. Only once, in 2005, has the result been decided by the rank-and-file membership. If the party room decision results in a stalemate, Sales will remain leader until the election is decided by the membership. The process of voting will be ended by late October or early November, with members likely to be given two to three weeks to vote by postal ballot.

Confirmed

 * Robin Sales, the incumbent leader, has declared his intention to restand for the leadership.
 * Erica Lucas, the party's current Foreign Affairs spokesperson, declared early on Thursday morning that she would run, encouraged to do so by her family and by a 'large section' of the party. Lucas's announcement came as a surprise, even though she has been suggested as a leadership candidate in the past.
 * Lawrence Porter, currently the party's deputy leader, announced he would stand at a lunchtime press conference on Thursday. Porter's media profile and policy experience makes him serious threat to Sales' leadership.

Potential

 * Deborah Rhodes
 * Adam St. John
 * Clare Price
 * Geraldine McLean
 * Keith Briggs
 * Robbie Jones

Declined
The party's Senate leader announced after the spill that she would not be a candidate.
 * Janet Hunt

Result
TBD